Mizuho’s senior analyst Dan Dolev disagrees with the popular narrative that stablecoins pose a disruptive threat to legacy payment giants like Visa Inc (NYSE: V) and Mastercard Inc (NYSE: MA).
In an interview with CNBC last week, Dolev agreed that the crypto ecosystem continues to attract attention from investors and technologists alike, but said the disruption thesis – particularly related to consumer payments – is fundamentally flawed.
“Graveyards are full of people who shorted Mastercard and Visa on such ideas,” he warned, adding, “they’ve been proven wrong again and again.”
Despite the hype surrounding blockchain and stablecoin adoption, especially after President Trump signed the “GENIUS Act” into law on July 18th, Dolev believes the core value proposition of credit networks remains intact, particularly in areas where consumers get tangible benefits like rewards.
Stablecoins are disruptive, but not for Visa and Mastercard
Dolev does believe in the disruptive potential of stablecoins – but only in narrow segments of the payments landscape.
Specifically, he sees impact in remittances and B2B cross-border transactions, where traditional players charge high fees and offer limited innovation.
However, speaking with CNBC, he drew clear line between these niches and the broader consumer payments ecosystem.
Stablecoins are disruptive to certain pockets in payments, but nothing that touches consumer.
According to the Mizuho analyst, Visa Inc. and Mastercard aren’t servicing those areas directly, meaning their core business remains insulated from stablecoin competition.
Visa, Mastercard value proposition still wins
Dolev remains unconvinced that stablecoins will replace traditional payment networks primarily because of the value proposition tied to credit cards.
Credit cards are about way more than convenience – they offer rewards, build credit, and enable access to services that stablecoins don’t replicate, he argued.
Even when comparing stablecoin yields to credit card points, the Mizuho analyst noted that yields are rate-dependent.
If interest rates fall, the incentive to use stablecoins diminishes, making it harder to monetize the business.
Stablecoins: crypto hype vs. market reality
On “Power Lunch”, Dolev also cautioned against overestimating the scale and momentum of the stablecoin market.
While companies like Circle and platforms like Coinbase have generated excitement, he quoted stagnant market cap growth as evidence of a disconnect between narrative and reality.
“The USDC market cap literally hasn’t moved since April – there’s a massive bifurcation between the story and the reality” he told CNBC.
All in all, Dan Dolev remains somewhat skeptical of stablecoins’ long-term profitability, especially if rates decline.
Should you buy Visa or Mastercard stock?
Dolev’s explanation on “Power Lunch” suggests the recent, stablecoins-driven pullback in Visa and Mastercard stock may be an opportunity to buy quality names at deep discounts.
That’s why Wall Street continues to rate both fintech stocks at “overweight” for the back half of 2025.
Plus, both V and MA shares currently pay a dividend yield of more than 0.50%, which makes up for another great reason to own them for the long-term.
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